NATO SfP Black Sea Project: Modeling

MODELING

The ultimate goal of modeling studies is to predict the variability of the ecosystem through coupled interdisciplinary models with near-real time data assimilation. This will be accomplished by utilising highly sophisticated, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary models involving both physical and biochemical components, supported by specific data assimilation methods. The modeling studies to be carried out within the framework of this project are put into three categories:

TASK I.1. Coupled OGCM-BGCM Studies with Data Assimilation
This task is regarded as a first stage of the realistic near-real time ocean prediction studies, and involves development and implementation of the data assimilation methodologies to improve forecasting skills by combining dynamical models with available observations.

TASK I.2. Process modeling
The following process-oriented modeling studies are considered of primary importance within the framework of this project.

	TASK I.2.A. Cross-shelf exchange processes between the outer shelf and the interior of the sea, including those induced by the Rim Current instabilities and other related mesoscale structures such as filaments, squirts, mushroom eddies, etc.
	TASK I.2.B. Interactions between the physical, biological and chemical processes of the oxic, suboxic and anoxic layers, including ventilation and redox processes across the suboxic/anoxic interface.
	TASK I.2.C. Exploring the ecosystem response to forcing variables.

TASK I.3. Near Real-Time Nowcast/Forecast Modeling

	TASK I.3.A. Evolution of the flow field along the southern part of the Black Sea between the Bosphorus exit region and Cape Sinop (i.e. the region between 29 and 35 ^oE)
	TASK I.3.B. Harmful algal blooms along selected coastal regions
	TASK I.3.C. Large scale dispersion of chemical pollutants, such as oil spills.

Key scientists: Prof. Temel Oguz, Prof. Gennady Korotaev